U.S., China, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

Contributed by Ian Chan

President Obama's trip to Asia following the recent midterm elections highlighted the likelihood that the remaining two years of Obama's current term of office may be dominated by foreign policy as he wrestles domestically with a divided Congress. Many have labeled Obama the so-called "Pacific" President, with his Indonesian upbringing and birth in Hawaii, but the label also extends beyond the biography of the President. The label signals an emphasis in U.S. policy toward Asia and away from its traditional focus in Europe and more recently in the Middle East. Sure, European nations will still remain allies and the enormous stake the U.S. has in the Middle East has not diminished, but Obama and his Secretary of State Hilary Clinton have signalled clearly their intention to heavily engage emerging Asian nations as their economic and geopolitical power rises in the 21st century.

The emphasis on Asia has much to do with the "rise of the rest", as Fareed Zakaria put it in his book "The Post-American World", the U.S. not only should want to, but needs to change its attitude toward emerging markets and their national governments as the post-WWII Washington consensus has slowly disintegrated. In particular, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will play a vital role in the ways the U.S. can seek to further its interests in the region without directly clashing with China. ASEAN is mainly an economic forum that facilitates trade and dialogue between member countries, and as a bloc it often negotiates with bigger economies such as China, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. If the U.S. chooses to be more engaged and pull ASEAN closer, it can act as a powerful check against a rising China that would no doubt seek to dominate the region. It is in ASEAN's interest to maintain their non-aligned status and play the powers off each other in order to get the best deal.

This strategy by ASEAN is reminiscent of the world before 1989. Then, countries such as India were famous in their non-alignment to either the Soviet Union or the United States, despite heavy lobbying, and in turn India was able to reap benefits from both blocs. This mindset is in play in a country no other than Obama's childhood home, Indonesia. A few days before Obama's visit, a high-level Chinese delegation concluded a massive deal with the Indonesian government to invest in badly needed infrastructure. The timing of the package, and the substance of it, clearly shows that while Indonesia is clearly not a Chinese ally or puppet, it sees the benefit of Chinese economic assistance and the void that creates for the U.S. Obama's response was not to match the Chinese package, but to strengthen ties with the Indonesian people by recalling childhood memories, interacting with local culture, and using Indonesian phrases in his speeches. His charm and warmness; however, may not be enough to pull ASEAN countries firmly into the American fold in the new multilateral world. Will this new kind of diplomacy kick off a new Cold War? At this moment, there is no clear sign that the world is turning back to a biploar world, but rather increasingly a multi-polar world where different countries all have an opinion and seek to compromise on all issues. The G-20 is a powerful example of this new way of doing business, and it seems that President Obama, given his character and policy preferences, is well suited for this new world order.

Sources: New York Times, "The Post-American World" by Fareed Zakaria