The North Korea Debacle

Contributed by Ian Chan

It seems like a never-ending nightmare for diplomats and military officials on both sides of the pacific: North Korea conducting some military action unilaterally and then threatening to respond to any acts of self-defense, the U.S. escalating exercises with South Korea, and China calling for "all sides to show restrain". But following the the recent shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, a South Korean military base that caused the death of several civilians and soldiers, there seems to be some change in this dynamic.

Following the shelling, South Korea responded in force and sent out fighter jets to patrol the area, the U.S. sent in the USS George Washington, a aircraft carrier that is a potent symbol of power in the Yellow Sea, and China has called for emergency consultations by inviting a North Korean official to Beijing. However, under all that diplomatic language there seems to be more. As the State Department cables released by WikiLeaks to international newspapers show, there seems to be a gradual shift in China's view of the North Korean regime and its unwavering support for its neighbors. This shift in view, according to the cables, go all the way to the top, and reveal a distancing that has never been seen before.

The leaks show that officials increasingly recognize that the alliance is not bringing any benefits to the Chinese, that the North's nuclear activity is a threat to the world, that the North is like a "spoiled child", that China can handle at least 300,000 refugees from a possible regime collapse, and that Beijing would be alright with a unified peninsula under the government in Seoul. These views, coupled with China's push for a renewal of the six-party talks and emergency consultations, seem to signal a change in stance.

But wait a second, experts in the region and historians have also noted that often even private remarks made by Chinese officials to foreign diplomats maybe more complex than they seem and that a significant shift in China's policy is unlikely, especially under an outgoing leadership. With the foreign policy stances of the possible successor to Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping, unknown to the world, there seems to be a small chance that there will be any official change until 2012. Moreover, China does not like to cave to pressure, in particular American, and the presence of a fully operational and supplied aircraft carrier carrying military exercises so close to its coast must be unsettling for a fledgling nation that feels it is being trapped and boxed in by the U.S. Furthermore, the 60th anniversary of the Korean War will remind the Chinese of their heroic sacrifices for their communist comrades during the conflict and will no doubt be used as a nationalistic rallying cry by the regime in Beijing to shore up domestic support.


Therefore, given these two contrasting views, the only conclusion that could be drawn is that the region remains as volatile as ever, and its players are complex and unpredictable. Kim Jong-il, North Korea's ailing leader, is rumored to be posturing to secure a smooth transition for his third son, Kin Jong-un, which has added to the instability in the regime. The South, under the right-wing government of Lee Myung-bak, has stepped up its defense and hard-line tone. The U.S. and China, in the meantime, will likely continue their proxy jabs and disagree on process and substance. Regime change may be coming, but no one knows how that would happen, and that should be worrying to the international community.

Sources: The Guardian, The Washington Post